Back in the 1980's, computers started to hit the masses with products like the Sinclair ZX80, the Commodore 64 and the BBC Micro. Many kids at school got the computing bug. This was nothing to do with gaming (that did not exist yet), it was all to do with coding.
There was a saying
which neatly summed up the interactions with those early computers:
Computers
don't always do what you want. They always do what you tell them.
The apparent
"intelligence" of a computer was not derived from the computer itself
but from the intelligence of the coders who wrote the programmes which it ran.
So if you wrote bad code, the computer appeared to misbehave. My computer spent
a lot of time on the naughty step.
I remember being
impressed and amused when I came across an early computer running a programme
called Eliza (developed originally in the mid 1960's). Communicating via the
keyboard, you could actually converse with an imaginary person within the
computer. The responses implied some form of intelligence, but after a short
period of time, you realised Eliza was pretty dumb but nevertheless likeable.
Eliza was simply a set of algorithms and rules which interacted with the
patterns in your text in order to mimic intelligent conversation.
One of the most
significant definitions of thinking machines came from Alan Turing (best known
for code breaking in the second world war and for being the main character in
the film The Imitation Game). He proposed a test in which a machine would be
set up to converse with a human remotely via a screen and text only. If the
human could not detect that he was conversing with a machine, then the so
called Turing Test would be passed.
Eliza was the first
example of a machine passing this test but was certainly not an example of
artificial intelligence.
There is no
universal definition of artificial intelligence, but here are some
characteristics which commonly apply:
A machine, computer
system or software which can:
- carry out tasks normally requiring human intelligence
- think for itself and make informed decisions
- learn for itself, adding to its pool of knowledge beyond that of the original programme
- generate original ideas
- make predictions based on analysis of past (or perhaps simulated) experiences
There have been
philosophical debates about whether man made machines can truly
"think" going back to Socrates and Plato. Questions of sentience,
feelings and the possession of a soul by machines have been explored by science
fiction writers like Philip K Dick in "Do Androids Dream of Electric
Sheep" through to the adventures of Data in Star Trek the Next Generation.
The challenge we are
about to face is more down to earth. Philosophy aside, if a machine can
accurately mimic the behaviour of a human, think and carry out tasks for
itself, then why not have it do those jobs which humans are doing today?
We are living in an
information age. The vast majority of us are "information workers".
Robots in this context are not restricted by physical form and artificial
intelligence can already carry out information worker tasks as well or better,
and certainly cheaper than humans. Eliza is arguably coming around to haunt us
in the guise of the latest generation chatbots. These 21st century editions are
not constrained by keyboards and text (although you will find this
communication mode used on websites), nowadays, they can use natural speech to
converse with customers and even translate between languages. We are even
seeing 24 hour shopkeepers and helper systems being put into homes with names
like Alexa, Cortana and unimaginatively, Google Home.
These forms of artificial intelligence are still very basic and have no feelings for sure and
will quite happily make you redundant. Predictions about how many jobs are
truly at risk vary enormously but have one thing in common - big numbers. I am
heartened by one of the lessons of history. Back in the 60's, around the time
Eliza and myself were being conceived, household appliances like washing
machines, blenders and toasters were set to make life easy. Similar advances at
work including the rise of computers were going to lead to three day weeks and
a leisurely life of luxury. This did not come to pass. Instead, ever increasing
demand for more machines, computers, blenders and all manner of other things
has led to shops open on Sundays, 60 hour weeks and a whole lot more stress in
our lives. My point is, demand for human labour does not diminish, but the
roles in demand will change.
Artificial
intelligence is already moving beyond the bounds of the digital world and into
the physical one. Driverless cars are a reality and if you are thinking, well I
haven't seen one, I can assure you it won't be too long. Southern Rail staff in
the UK have been going through a long painful battle against the introduction
of trains with driver operated doors on the grounds that not having a guard do
this reduces passenger safety. A time will come when driverless trains will
prove to be safer than human operated ones and unfortunately, train driving as
a career will be heading to a siding.
If you are thinking
this topic is getting a bit dark, you ain't seen nothing yet. In 2016, one of
the greatest thinkers alive today had this to say about AI:
"The
primitive forms of artificial intelligence we already have, have proved very
useful. But I think the development of full artificial intelligence could spell
the end of the human race," Stephen
Hawking in an interview with the BBC.
The book by Nick
Bostrom, "Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies" has become a
bestseller. Bostrom is the founding director of Oxford university’s Future of
Humanity Institute and so spends a lot of time thinking about this stuff. Not all
agree about the timing of when computer intelligence will match that of a human
but sometime well before the end of this century seems to be a consensus.
Bostrom does not predict it will all go wrong but highlights a number of
possible ways that it could.
In the meantime,
trying not to have nightmares about Terminator coming true, artificial
intelligence is on the cusp of making a real difference to our lives both at
home and in our work. Computers may start doing more than what we tell them and
actually start showing some initiative. And that has surely got to be a good
thing.
Gartner's latest view on AI - here
Gartner's latest view on AI - here
